Forecaster

How do I start a Forecaster using a custom interval in MetaStock?
MetaStock v15 --> Current

Open MetaStock.
From the Power Console select the Forecaster button.
Type an instrument into the Instrument(s) field, or select an instrument or multiple instruments from a custom list or public online list (Multiple instruments can be typed in by separating them with a space).
Select the Interval drop-down menu, select Custom.
Set the desired Interval and Multiplier (for a 3-day interval, set the Interval to Day(s) and the Multiplier to 3).
Select the desired options from the right pane.
Select Start Forecaster or press Enter.

How do I create a user-defined pattern in the Forecaster in MetaStock?
MetaStock v16 - Current

Open MetaStock.
From the Power Console select the Forecaster button.
Type an instrument or select an instrument from a custom list or a public online list.
Set the desired amount of data to load from the right pane.
Select the Start Forecaster or press Enter.
Select the Event Recognizer tab.
Select the Draw New Pattern.
Enter a Name for the new pattern.
Position the cursor into the Pattern Shape, Location, and Orientation box.
Click and hold the mouse and draw the desired pattern (Ex. Head and Shoulder, Double Top/Bottom, line trending up/down, gentle curve up/down etc).
Select the desired options and select Save.

 How do I change the sorting of Forecaster patterns in MetaStock?

MetaStock 15 --> Current

Open MetaStock.
From the Power Console, select the Forecaster button.
Type an instrument or select an instrument from a custom list or a public online list.
Set the desired amount of data to load from the options pane on the right.
Click Start Forecaster or press Enter.
From the Price, Volume and Event Markers tab, click the Sorted By drop-down menu.
Click on the desired method of sorting from the choices below.
Select the Set Default button, to set the selected item to display when Forecaster is first open.
Highest Profit Potential
Highest Profit Potential Long Only
Highest Profit Potential Short Only
Most Accurate Current Forecast
Most Pronounced Current Breakout
Most Distinct Forecast cloud
Most Recent Event
Most Events
Recognizer Name

How do I set the price interval in a user-defined pattern in the Forecaster in MetaStock?
MetaStock v15 --> Current

Open MetaStock.
From the Power Console, select the Forecaster button.
Type an instrument or select an instrument from a custom list or public online list.
Select the desired amount of data to load, from the right pane.
Select Start Forecaster or press Enter.
Select Event Recognizer tab.
Click Draw New Pattern (Or select an existing pattern and select Modify Selected Pattern).
Enter a Name for the new pattern.
Select the desired Compatible Price Intervals from the list.
Select Save.

 What is the Forecaster?
The Forecaster is a statistical analysis tool that visually displays how prices will react after an event. An event can be traditional technical signals (i.e., crossovers, divergences, etc) but can also include calendar-based, seasonal, fundamental or other activities. The only requirement is that the event must be associated with a date or time. Each event is defined by an event recognizer. The Forecaster contains over 60 different event recognizers.

The Forecaster uses advanced mathematics to examine the price action after events to determine the probable performance of future events. Put another way, if an instrument is loaded with five years of data and checked against an event recognizer of a 40/200 moving average crossover, it might show this event has occurred 10 times within the range of the loaded data. The Forecaster would calculate the performance of the instrument after each event and display a report of the most likely result after various intervals. It goes a step further and displays this result graphically as a Forecast cloud which can be overlaid on the prices.

How to read a Forecast cloud?
Rather than just listing performance values with percentage ranges, the Forecaster displays this information graphically.

The left edge of the cloud corresponds to the bar the event occurred on. The Forecast Cloud tab marks time intervals at 7, 14, 30, 60, 90, and 180 bars. These correspond to the intervals listed in the Statistical Report. The length of the cloud can be adjusted using the Forecast Length drop-down list.

The colors show the probability of an instrument's performance at a given time since the event. The more intense the color, the more likely the prices will move to that area.

- Blue areas cover large sections and show a range of likely results. These are low probability regions. They could be thought of as Bollinger Bands in that the prices will likely be somewhere in that region but they are not bound to them.
- Purple and pink regions show areas the prices have a stronger tendency to move to. These areas are significant and represent areas of high probability.
- Red is used to show areas with very high probabilities. These are rare after the initial reaction to an event.
- Yellow is used to show "hot spots". These are regions of the cloud with extremely high probabilities. They are very rare. All hot spots are significant.

The cloud is based on the past performance of the instrument. If every previous occurrence of an event showed a 5% increase in price 30 bars from the event, the Forecast cloud would show a bright red or yellow region 30 bars from the event around the 5% region. If there were no discernible tendencies, the cloud would show a blue region covering the range of results.

What are Forecast clouds?
A Forecast cloud is a graphical representation of the composite price performance of all previously identified events. The intensity of the colors represents the degree to which prices converged at specific performance levels. High color intensity (reds and yellows) indicate that prices tended to converge at that point after the past events. A divergence of price movement following the past events is evidenced by low-intensity colors (purples and blues).

Forecast clouds can be viewed two ways:
- In the Forecast Cloud tab as a standalone graph. This cloud is dynamic and will include all data loaded by the Forecaster
- Overlaid on the chart at a specific event marker. This cloud is static and only includes data prior to the selected event.

The dynamic cloud, in the Forecast Cloud tab, will adjust for new price data, up to the number bars set for the Forecast Length. For example, if the Forecast Length is set to 90 bars and an event occurs on the current bar, cloud in the Forecast Cloud tab will recalculate each bar for the next 90 bars. If there are 20 total events in the load data, the new information will represent just 5% of the available data and the changes will be small. If there are only 5 events, the new data could have a significant effect on the cloud.

The static cloud will not change as new data is received. It will only show the cloud as calculated from the available data up to the bar of the selected event. This allows the cloud in the chart to be used to compare the current trade to prior performance.

When a Forecast cloud is overlaid on a chart at an event near the last bar, the cloud may project into the future. When displayed this way the cloud gives an indication as to where prices (from a historical probability standpoint) may move.